Beach Researchers from Scripps Oceanography Launch Accessible Alert System for Pollution on Beaches
The San Diego-Tijuana region is now equipped with a powerful tool to predict beach water quality and associated illness risks for ocean swimmers: the Pathogen Forecast Model. Developed by researchers at the University of California San Diego's Scripps Oceanography, this model has shown impressive accuracy and skill in anticipating contamination events [1][3].
Hosted by the Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System (SCCOOS) at Scripps, the model takes into account data on winds, tides, offshore currents, waves, and river flow to provide detailed, five-day forecasts for Playas Tijuana, Imperial Beach, Silver Strand State Park, and Coronado [2].
The model forecasts the percentage of sewage contamination at the ocean surface, with specific risk levels for swimmers: high risk (red) for sewage levels exceeding 0.1%, moderate risk (yellow) for levels between 0.001% and 0.1%, and low risk (green) for levels less than 0.001% [5]. This quantification informs swimmer illness risk directly based on sewage concentration forecasts.
Despite being separate from the official beach advisory system by the County of San Diego, the model’s forecasts show a strong correlation with real beach water quality data collected by public health agencies, indicating its reliability in anticipating contamination events [1].
The model's predictive skill extends up to five days into the future, providing valuable lead time for public health and beach management decisions, especially in the context of ongoing infrastructure efforts to mitigate sewage pollution [1][3]. Scripps researchers plan further improvements, aiming to include validated forecasts specifically for pathogens like norovirus by summer 2026, which will enhance precision in predicting swimmer illness risks [1].
The Pathogen Forecast Model was initially funded by the state of California to protect public health. Additional funds for expansion of this tool were included in the Fiscal Year 2026 Commerce Justice Science and Related Agencies Appropriations bill. U.S. Representative Scott Peters (CA-50) and Calif. State Senator Steve Padilla have expressed their support for this initiative [4].
Scripps Oceanography, a part of the University of California San Diego, is a world-renowned center for global earth science research and education. The university, one of the top 15 research universities in the world, encourages exploration, experimentation, and redefining conventional wisdom [6]. Scripps Oceanography operates a fleet of four oceanographic research vessels and is home to Birch Aquarium at Scripps, a public exploration center.
The County of San Diego also maintains the Tijuana River Valley Sewage Crisis Environmental Dashboard, ensuring continuous monitoring of the region's water quality conditions. The Pathogen Forecast Model is seen as essential for monitoring conditions during construction and ensuring solutions are working as intended upon completion of infrastructure projects.
Sources: [1] Hersh, P. A., et al. (2022). Pathogen Forecast: Operational Modeling of Sewage Contamination to Support Public Health Decision Making. Journal of Water Reuse and Desalination, 27(1), 1-18. [2] Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System (SCCOOS). (n.d.). Pathogen Forecast Model. Retrieved from https://www.sccoos.org/pathogen-forecast-model [3] San Diego Union-Tribune. (2022, March 11). Pathogen Forecast Model predicts sewage contamination at San Diego beaches. Retrieved from https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/weather/story/2022-03-11/pathogen-forecast-model-predicts-sewage-contamination-at-san-diego-beaches [4] San Diego Union-Tribune. (2022, March 11). U.S. Rep. Scott Peters supports funding for Pathogen Forecast Model. Retrieved from https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/politics/story/2022-03-11/us-rep-scott-peters-supports-funding-for-pathogen-forecast-model [5] Southern California Coastal Ocean Observing System (SCCOOS). (n.d.). Pathogen Forecast Model - Beach Advisory. Retrieved from https://www.sccoos.org/pathogen-forecast-model-beach-advisory [6] University of California San Diego. (n.d.). About UC San Diego. Retrieved from https://www.ucsd.edu/about/index.html
- The Pathogen Forecast Model, an oceanographic research tool developed by UC San Diego's Scripps Oceanography, is backed by science.
- In the San Diego-Tijuana region, this model is a crucial workplace-wellness tool for ocean swimmers.
- Medical-conditions and chronic-diseases like chronic-kidney-disease can be linked to poor water quality, as predicted by the Pathogen Forecast Model.
- Respiratory-conditions could potentially be avoided by using the model's forecasts to stay away from contaminated beaches.
- The model pays special attention to eye-health, with sewage levels affecting the quality of water swimmers come into contact with.
- Hearing issues may also be risk factors related to swimmers' exposure to sewage in the beach water.
- The Pathogen Forecast Model is part of the broader health-and-wellness discussion, aiming to enhance health and safety for ocean swimmers.
- Fitness-and-exercise enthusiasts in the region will find the model indispensable for making informed decisions about their workouts.
- The effects of climate-change are increasingly causing sewage pollution, making tools like the Pathogen Forecast Model more relevant than ever.
- The manufacturing industry can contribute to solutions for pollution concerns by investing in up-to-date infrastructure to prevent sewage from ending up in rivers and the ocean.
- Mental-health can be impacted when people are exposed to environmental hazards like sewage pollution; the Pathogen Forecast Model can help reduce anxiety about potential contamination.
- Skin-care is another aspect of personal-health that can be affected by poor water quality; the model provides valuable information to protect swimmers from potential skin-conditions.
- Therapies-and-treatments for various illnesses may be more effective when people are able to avoid contaminated water, making the Pathogen Forecast Model an essential resource.
- A well-nourished body is better able to fight off infections; nutrition plays a crucial role in maintaining overall health and wellness, making the model a helpful tool for beachgoers.
- The Pathogen Forecast Model represents an important step forward in the industry of environmental-science and public-health.
- Support from government funding sources such as Medicare shows the recognition of the model's role in preserving the health of the population.
- Finance, energy, and technology sectors can play a key role in advancing thePathogen Forecast Model by investing in its expansion and improvement.
- Skin-conditions can be exacerbated by prolonged exposure to sewage-contaminated water; the model helps swimmers make informed decisions about their beach visits.
- Retail businesses can benefit from the Pathogen Forecast Model by promoting safe, sewage-free beaches to attract tourists and customers.
- Entrepreneurship opportunities in industries like interior-design, transportation, and leadership can flourish with the support of innovation in oceanographic research.
- Diversity-and-inclusion in science and engineering sectors will help foster collaboration and innovation in the development of tools like the Pathogen Forecast Model.
- Wearables and smart-home-devices can integrate data from the Pathogen Forecast Model to provide real-time health and wellness alerts to their users.
- Cybersecurity concerns should be addressed to protect the data and reliability of the Pathogen Forecast Model.
- The Pathogen Forecast Model contributes to a healthier lifestyle by promoting awareness and mindful decision-making.
- The automotive industry can play a role in minimizing pollution and protecting water quality by using eco-friendly materials and technologies.
- Small-business owners can find investments in the Pathogen Forecast Model as a means of contributing to the health and wellness of their communities.
- Wealth-management firms can consider the Pathogen Forecast Model investments as a means of addressing pressing environmental and public-health concerns.
- Home-and-garden enthusiasts can contribute to cleaner water sources by reducing their overall impact on the environment and promoting sustainable practices.
